Belarus Ruse, Arestovych & the Air Defence Claim, UK Aid
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"The only way that Ukraine war ends with the fewest number of deaths, right, is if it isn't protracted now if we so now's the time to say we'll just give you everything"
And here is the summary:
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses some key developments in the ongoing war in Ukraine, including the puzzling movement of Russian troops and equipment to Belarus, the resignation of a top Ukrainian advisor after a false claim, and a significant boost in UK military aid to Ukraine. He provides his analysis and insights on each of these topics.
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Russian troops and equipment in Belarus - a ruse?
Jonathan examines the odd movement of Russian troops and equipment by train into Belarus. He considers three possibilities:
- It's a feint to distract Ukraine from an attack elsewhere, but this seems unlikely given the illogical use of resources.
- Russia is genuinely planning an attack from the north, but again this seems doomed to fail given the terrain, defences and lack of sufficient troops.
- The equipment is being sent for repairs before redeployment to the front lines, which is more plausible but not fully supported by the evidence of the equipment's condition.
Ultimately, Jonathan remains puzzled by Russia's actions here and suspects political pressure on Lukashenko may be a factor.
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UK military aid boost to Ukraine
The UK has announced a significant new package of military aid for Ukraine, including:
- 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks and armoured recovery/repair vehicles
- 30 AS90 self-propelled guns
- Hundreds of other armoured vehicles including Bulldog APCs
- Dozens of drones, "sophisticated" missiles, Starstreak air defence missiles
- 100,000 artillery rounds
- Training for Ukrainian troops
Jonathan argues this aid, while not a "game-changer" in itself, is still substantial and may spur other allies like Germany to provide more heavy weaponry. He praises the UK government's leadership but questions why they aren't sending even more tanks that are due to be retired anyway. Ultimately, he argues "now's the time" for maximum support to help Ukraine win quickly and decisively.
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Arestovych's resignation after Dnipro missile claim
Oleksiy Arestovych, a top advisor to President Zelensky, resigned after falsely claiming that Ukraine's own air defences had shot down a Russian missile, causing it to hit an apartment block in Dnipro and kill 44 civilians. The claim, which Arestovych said was based on unofficial information from an acquaintance, was seized upon by Russian propaganda before being refuted by the Ukrainian Air Force. Jonathan examines video evidence of the strike, which he argues supports Ukraine's position that this was a Russian missile hitting the building directly. However, he acknowledges the slight possibility that a Ukrainian interception attempt knocked the missile off course without being caught on camera. Ultimately, Jonathan argues the bulk of the moral responsibility lies with Russia for launching missiles at Ukrainian cities in the first place as part of an illegal war of aggression. In his view, Ukraine has every right to defend its airspace even if some defence attempts go tragically wrong.
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Wrap up
Jonathan encourages viewers to share their own thoughts on these issues. He appreciates his audience and promises a frontline update in his next video.
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