More Counteroffensive Analysis, & RU Eqmt Production
Table of Contents 📖
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"I wouldn't have to do this thread if, for example, their standard dot wouldn't confuse the Ukrainian army's assault brigades with the National Guard's offensive guard brigades."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is rushing out this extra video before a planned live stream later with a US combat medic working in Ukraine. The main topics will be claims about Russia's ability to produce new military equipment and further analysis of Ukraine's counteroffensive.
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Thomas Tyner's Analysis of Ukraine's Counteroffensive
Thomas Tyner rejects claims that Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed. He explains there are at least five phases, and Ukraine is only in the middle of phase one - attrition and interdiction. Analysts are incorrectly comparing this to US/NATO operations that rely heavily on air power in phase one. Ukraine lacks this air power and is using ground forces, artillery, HIMARS and drones to attrit Russian forces before launching the main ground offensive. Only 4 of the 35 Ukrainian brigades prepared for the offensive are currently engaged, with the rest still training. Tyner believes Ukraine's victory is inevitable as they get stronger each day with returning trained troops and new equipment.
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UK Assessment of Russia's Military Production
The UK Chief of Defense Staff said Russia can at best produce 200 new tanks a year, putting claims of Russian defense output in perspective. Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army, firing 10 million artillery shells last year but only able to produce 1 million a year at best. It has lost 2,500 tanks and can at best produce 200 new tanks annually. Jonathan agrees this is a good assessment.
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Claims About Russian Military Production & Exports
A Twitter user "Patricia Marins" made several claims about Russia's military production and exports, suggesting any electronics shortage is in the past. However, Jonathan analyzes the evidence provided and finds it lacking. The helicopter and jet deliveries to African countries cited are likely from existing stocks, not new production. The repair facility in Uganda is for overhauling existing helicopters, not producing new ones. Jonathan is skeptical of the claim Russia can produce "many hundreds of tanks" and "probably thousands" of other armored vehicles annually, as the evidence is mostly assertions and propaganda videos/images that don't prove much. Even if Russia could produce 500-900 tanks a year as claimed, it wouldn't keep up with their loss rate. Jonathan says more questions need to be asked and skepticism is warranted regarding Russia's actual military production capabilities.
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Wrap up
Jonathan found this to be a useful set of topics to understand what's happening on the front lines and to analyze Russian claims about their military production. While open questions remain, it's important to ask the right questions and maintain appropriate skepticism. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, share and check out his upcoming live stream.
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