Bakhmut and Beyond
Table of Contents 📖
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"If they took care of the BTR, the positions would have been secure."
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares a notice from the Ukrainian government that generals Zaluzhny and Syrsky believe Bakhmut should continue to be defended. He hopes they have done their calculations correctly. Jonathan has already recorded a video about how difficult the situation is in Bakhmut for some Ukrainian soldiers.
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Ryan Booth's Theory on Why Ukraine is Still Defending Bakhmut
Although the situation in Bakhmut is no longer favourable to Ukraine, the ongoing Russian offensive is. Russia needs to take Bakhmut before they can pause to restock and refit units in preparation for Ukraine's anticipated spring offensive. The longer the current Russian offensive continues, the less time, ammo and armor Russia will have to prepare for what could be the decisive action of the war. Delaying that pause supports the eventual success of Ukraine's offensive.
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Readjusting Russian Objectives
A pro-Russian commenter suggests Kramatorsk will fall by the end of 2023 after Bakhmut is taken. Jonathan points out how long it has taken to not even fully capture Bakhmut yet. He believes this is a significant readjustment of Russian success criteria and objectives compared to their previous ambitious claims. Even if Russia could take Kramatorsk by end of 2023, it would mean 9 more months just to advance that far. Meanwhile, Russia is struggling to make progress on other fronts like Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and Kreminna.
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The Operational Value of Bakhmut
Jonathan argues that Bakhmut currently has very limited operational value outside of fixing and attritting Russian forces. The key roads in and out of Bakhmut have not been usable for months to supply anywhere other than Bakhmut itself. So the fall of Bakhmut now would not change Ukraine's ability to operate elsewhere. The real value has been in tying down and degrading Russian forces, but that is not intrinsic to Bakhmut specifically.
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Difficulties Faced by Ukrainian Forces in Bakhmut
A Kyiv Independent article highlights the challenges Ukrainian forces are facing in Bakhmut:
- Poorly trained, hastily assembled units being sent to the front lines with little support
- Lack of heavy weapons, drones, communications equipment
- Russian artillery and armor allowed to strike Ukrainian positions for hours without being countered
- High casualty rates, with one battalion dropping from 500 to 150 soldiers in a month
- Extremely dangerous conditions, with low chances of survival for soldiers
- Ammunition shortages worse than during the defense of Soledar
- Bakhmut nearly encircled by Russian forces
While Russia has likely suffered tens of thousands of casualties, Ukrainian losses also appear to be very high. Soldiers are questioning why more support and equipment aren't being provided.
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Wrap up
In conclusion, while the Ukrainian forces have been attritting the Russian military, they have also faced severe challenges and losses themselves in Bakhmut. Russia will likely take Bakhmut eventually, but may be culminated and unable to easily advance much further. Other towns like Chasiv Yar will also pose difficulties. Jonathan believes that for Russia to take Kramatorsk by end of 2023 is still highly unlikely, as it doesn't account for future Ukrainian counter-offensives with new Western equipment and trained troops that will likely draw Russian forces elsewhere. If Russia does take Kramatorsk by then, it will have taken them over a year just to not even fully capture the Donbas - a very underwhelming "success".
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