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Russia's Strategy

Thursday, 26th January 2023, 18:37
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"Putin believed the vast oil and gas fields gave Russia irrevocable superpower status and that using it as a cudgel on his clients would never backfire. Quote, he has certainly overplayed his hand, said Yergin. He went into this quite confident that Russia was an energy superpower and that this in and of itself gave it enormous political power. That was an overestimate."

Hello Team!

Jonathan discusses an article by Mick Ryan, a former Australian general, who explores Russia's strategy and its various components for its continuing Ukraine invasion in 2023. To effectively combat Russia, it's important to understand their objectives.

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Russia's Initial Invasion Plans and Adaptations

Russia's initial plan was to depose the Ukrainian government within 2-5 days and clear the rest of the country in 15 days. However, they were unprepared for the resistance they faced. As a result, Russia had to adapt their strategy multiple times:

  • Focusing on the east and south after failing in the north
  • Attempting to take the Donbas region
  • Shifting objectives as they realized their limitations


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Components of Russia's Evolved Strategy

According to Mick Ryan, Russia's adapted strategy for 2023 likely has seven components:

  1. Information warfare to retain domestic support and influence foreign populations
  2. Command and leadership changes, such as appointing General Gerasimov
  3. Offensive military action using mobilized soldiers and Wagner Group recruits
  4. Diplomacy efforts led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
  5. National mobilization of the Russian people and industry
  6. Economic warfare to constrain Ukraine's revenue and impose costs
  7. Adaptive strategy to learn from setbacks and Western interventions


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Russia's Energy Strategy Backfires

Putin believed that Russia's vast oil and gas reserves gave them irrevocable superpower status. However, his attempt to use energy as a weapon against Europe has backfired. The price cap on Russian oil, set at $60 per barrel, has significantly reduced Russia's revenue. As a result, Russia is losing an estimated 160-280 million euros per day. This loss of income will have severe consequences for Russia's social and economic well-being.

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Russia's Information Warfare

Despite conventional narratives, Russia is not losing the information war, according to Dr. Ivana Stradina, an expert on Russia's propaganda warfare. Russia targets audiences worldwide, spreading disinformation and conspiracy theories to create chaos and discredit the West. To combat this, the West and Ukraine must go on the offensive in the information space, spreading positive messaging and narratives rather than constantly being on the defensive.

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Other News

  • A right-wing demonstration in Sweden, where a Quran was burned, has complicated Sweden's NATO bid due to Turkey's strong reaction. There are indications that pro-Russian elements may have been involved in organizing the demonstration.
  • In a recent interview, President Zelensky dismissed Putin as "nobody" to him, refusing to meet with the Russian leader.
  • Russia launched 55 missiles at Ukraine, but Ukrainian air defenses shot down 47 of them, with only 5 reaching their targets.


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Wrap up

Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He also appreciates the enriching conversations in the comments section.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

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