What Is Victory?, ARM Deterrence, Ukr AD claims, & Mine-Smacking
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Victory is a larger concept that looks beyond military success to ensure that the cost of such success is balanced by the improvements in the nation's prospects and future prosperity that were underpinned by the cost of war."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as a Ukraine War Update Extra, providing additional insights and understanding of the war in Ukraine. He mentions it is a "smorgasbord" of topics with no particular connection between them.
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Russian aircraft armed for deterrence
- Images show Russian Su-34 aircraft departing Crimea equipped with anti-radiation missiles (ARMs) designed to target Ukrainian air defence systems
- These aircraft patrols are largely meant to deter Ukrainian surface-to-air missile (SAM) operators from activating their radars
- The Su-34s rarely enter the engagement zones of Ukrainian SAMs or launch their ARMs
- This tactic is used more for deterrence than attack, to get the Ukrainians to turn off their air defence systems so other Russian missiles or aircraft can operate
Ukrainian claims of intercepting Russian missiles
- Jonathan advises being healthily sceptical of claims from both sides about their military achievements as there are various motivations and agendas at play
- Russia can lie without consequence domestically while Ukraine has to be more truthful to maintain trust and aid from international partners
- Ukrainian claims of 100% interception could be true but are unlikely. Factors like decoy missiles, Russian missiles breaking up or missing targets could inflate perceived success rates
- The case for investing in Patriot air defence for Ukraine will be statistical not anecdotal. It doesn't need a 100% success rate to be cost-effective for Ukraine and impose costs on Russia
Defining victory for Ukraine
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan proposes 7 components for Ukrainian victory:
- Defeat Russia militarily in Ukraine
- Secure guarantees for Ukraine's future security including NATO membership
- Ongoing economic assistance to keep Ukraine's government and economy functioning
- Reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, housing, industry and institutions
- Social reintegration of veterans, refugees and healing psychological wounds
- Accountability and justice for Russian war crimes and human rights abuses
- Russia eschewing its imperial ambitions and strategic culture (very long-term)
- Ukraine and its allies will need to work on the first 6 components intensively as transforming Russia will take a long time
- The international community has a key role in supporting Ukraine achieve a victory that brings a better peace
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes by discussing the dangerous but vital work of demining in Ukraine, which is unusually taking place during an active conflict. He shows a video of a Ukrainian soldier using unorthodox methods to clear mines and ends on a humorous note while acknowledging the seriousness of the task. He thanks his viewers and supporters, noting more content is on the way.
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