Ukraine War Update

"Avdivka has held out for this long. And yet, as some are saying, well, you know, there are other places around here that are just as fortified, and just important, fortified and just important or if not more important than Avdiivka so you know what's what's the diff"

Hello Team!

Jonathan discusses a couple of points from the ISW daily report:

• Wagner Group may lose most of its convict force in the upcoming weeks as their 6-month contracts expire. There are concerns in Russia about these convicts flooding the streets upon release.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and National Guard have launched a criminal investigation into the deputy commander of the Central District for corruption and taking bribes.

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Northeast Sector - Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna

• Minor Russian advances reported south of Hryanikivka.
• ISW reports unsuccessful Russian offensive operations in Masyukivka, Novoselivske, Bilohorivka, and Verkhno-Kamyanske along this front.
• Geolocated footage claimed to show Russian advances towards Terny, but Jonathan is skeptical as it appears to show a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter striking Russian positions within established lines.
• Fighting continues around Kreminna with reports of Ukrainian counterattacks and pushing back Russian troops north of Dibrova. The situation remains contested.

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Bakhmut

• According to pro-Ukrainian blogger Noel Reports, the situation remains largely unchanged with heavy fighting.
• Russians putting pressure along the line but Ukrainians using drone reconnaissance to conduct HIMARS strikes on Russian positions.
• Some minor Russian gains reported by pro-Russian sources in the industrial area and along Korsunsky Street, Sobachevka and Budyonovka districts.
• Reporting from Ukraine claims Ukrainians may be pushing back in the southwest and T-62/T-64 tanks seen moving towards Bakhmut, possibly for a counterattack. High mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) may be being used in a new way to strike smaller Russian targets.

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Avdiivka

• Conflicting claims about Russian advances. Pro-Russian sources claim Russians have crossed the railway line and are attacking Stepove, threatening to encircle Avdiivka. However, pro-Ukrainian sources deny this and say Stepove remains under Ukrainian control.
• Significant Russian losses reported with entire columns of vehicles and trenches full of dead soldiers (50-100) from mines, artillery and drones. The 35th Marine Brigade is inflicting heavy damage.
• ISW reports diverging views among Russian milbloggers on the ability to encircle Avdiivka and its significance. Some argue it would not significantly change the operational situation.
• ISW assesses Ukrainian command could decide to withdraw from Avdiivka if Russian advances continue, but this does not appear likely at this time. Holding Avdiivka allows Ukrainians to strike Donetsk city with precision artillery.

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Southern Front

• No significant updates for Vuhledar, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson fronts.
• Drone attack on Dzhankoy in Crimea hit a major Russian logistics/transport hub. Conflicting claims on what was hit. Likely impacted Russian ability to supply southern fronts.
• Breaking news of a Russian missile strike on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia, compared to a "terrorist attack". More information to follow.

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Wrap Up

Jonathan wraps up today's frontline update and asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He appreciates the support and mentions an extra video coming out later.

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