PANIC!!!!1! No. Don't Panic. Some Leopards Will Lose Their Spots.
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"This is a war. They are going on the offensive. It's going to be attritional. They're going to take their highest losses now. This is what you should expect."
Hello Team!
Jonathan addresses the recent Ukrainian losses of military equipment, including Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs, during their counter-offensive. He notes there are two contrasting reactions - some are very concerned while others argue this is to be expected in war. Jonathan aims to unpick what has happened and what the appropriate response should be.
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Details of the Ukrainian Losses
- Ukraine lost 4 M2A2 Bradley IFVs, 1 Leopard 2A6 tank, and a BMR-2 armoured demining vehicle in one location
- An additional 4 M2A2 Bradleys were lost in the same position
- The initial losses were likely due to the vehicles hitting a minefield
- A Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank and T-64BV tank were also destroyed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Another Leopard 2A6 and Oshkosh MRAP were damaged and abandoned nearby
- Oryx has confirmed the first loss of a Leopard 2A6 tank
- In total, at least 3 Leopard 2A6 tanks (1 destroyed, 2 abandoned), 10 Bradleys, 1 VAB APC, and 1 Oshkosh MRAP have been lost so far
Jonathan's Analysis
- These losses occurred in the initial stage of Ukraine's offensive, which will be the most attritional with the highest losses as they attempt to penetrate well-fortified Russian defences
- The Russians are heavily promoting this one incident to give the impression Ukraine is struggling across the entire front
- The lack of Russian footage from other areas of the offensive likely indicates Ukraine is having more success there
- Some are overreacting and drawing premature conclusions from limited information about a single engagement
- Losses should be expected during any major offensive, even with good tactics, due to factors like bad luck and enemy competence
- Military leaders should set realistic public expectations about unavoidable losses during offensive operations
- While unfortunate, these losses do not mean the entire offensive is in trouble or that Ukraine should give up
Importance of Logistics and Maintenance
- Damaged vehicles are an inevitable part of combat, so having trained maintenance teams for rapid battle damage assessment and repair is crucial
- Logistics, supply chains, and available parts are often the limiting factors in combat rather than the vehicles themselves
- Ukraine is working to streamline the various types of donated equipment to simplify logistics and support
- While the Ukrainian forces are formidable, there will be early hiccups as they adapt to using new technologies in offensive operations
Silver Linings
- Most of the abandoned Ukrainian vehicles only suffered mobility kills, meaning the crews likely survived and can be sent back out in replacement vehicles
- Western vehicles are doing their job of protecting personnel even when damaged or destroyed
- At least one of the damaged Leopard 2 tanks may have already been recovered and repaired
- Even if hit by mines, modern Western tanks offer a high chance of crew survivability compared to Russian designs
Wrap Up
In conclusion, while the recent Ukrainian losses are unfortunate, they are not unexpected given the realities of offensive warfare against entrenched defences. It's important not to overreact or draw sweeping conclusions from limited information about a single engagement. The Russians are naturally promoting these losses heavily, but their silence about the rest of the front may indicate Ukraine is faring better elsewhere. With solid logistics, maintenance, and battle damage repair, Ukraine can mitigate losses and continue their offensive. This will be a tough fight, but these early losses do not mean Ukraine is doomed to fail.
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